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In the NBA Its Not Whether You Win or Lose Its Whether

It was the age of foolishness. It was the summer of trading three draft picks for Andrea Bargnani. It was the autumn of J.R. Smith being suspended for marijuana possession. It was the winter of disparaging the shot clock. It was the New York Knicks’ 2013-14 season. So when Mike Woodson was fired as the coach of the Knicks on a warm, spring day in Gotham Monday, New York breathed a sigh of relief.But Woodson’s problem wasn’t just that the Knicks were bad. The Knicks are usually bad. Woodson’s problem was that the Knicks — for a change — were expected to be good. They’d won 54 games and gone to the Eastern Conference semifinals the year before. Preseason over-under lines pegged their win total at 49.5 games. When my ESPN colleague Kevin Pelton, through his SCHOENE system, instead projected the Knicks to win 37 games, his projection threatened to turn Knickerblogger, the eminently sane and stats-friendly blog, into the basketball version of “unskewed polls.”The Knicks went 37 and 45.In the NBA, where about 30 percent of the league turns its head coach over every season, these expectations matter as much as reality. I mean that literally: Las Vegas’s preseason over-under lines predict coach turnover just as well as actual wins and losses do.I went back and collected preseason over-under lines dating back to the 2006-07 season. I compared them to each team’s actual record during the regular season. Then I ran a logistic regression analysis. The dependent variable is whether the team kept the same head coach from the start of that regular season to the next one. Here are the results:The regression output contains two variables: exp_w (the number of games a team was expected to win, per Las Vegas) and act_w (actual wins). For the 2011-12 NBA season, which was shortened by a player lockout, I’ve prorated both totals to 82 games.You may notice that the coefficient on each variable is almost identical, though they have opposite signs. What that means is that an expected win hurts a coach about as much as an actual win helps him.The graph below provides an illustration of this, and measures the probability of a coaching change under two scenarios: a team (like this year’s Sacramento Kings) that was expected to win 30 games, and a team (like the Knicks) that was expected to win 50. If the projected 30-win team wins 35 games, just slightly better than expectations, its probability of a coaching change is only about 17 percent. If the projected 50-win team wins 45 games, just slightly worse than expectations, the probability is 37 percent instead.Lest this seem too abstract, I’ve compiled a list of all teams since the 2006-07 season that underperformed their over-under line by 10 games or more. There are 33 of these. Here’s what happened to their coaches:Nine of them were fired during the season;Nine of them were fired after the season;One of them resigned during the season;Two of them resigned after the season;Two of them, Larry Drew of the Milwaukee Bucks and Brian Shaw of the Denver Nuggets, just completed their seasons and have yet to learn their fates;The other 10 kept their jobs, although five of them were fired during or after their following season. Other factors also affect a coach’s odds of being fired. Deep playoff runs help coaches. First-year coaches sometimes get mulligans and are less likely to be fired. We’ll save that discussion for another post, however.The lesson is simple: A coach is not long for his job when expectations run wild, as they often do in New York. With the benefit of hindsight, it now seems likely that Woodson’s Knicks overachieved in the 2012-13 season. That only made it harder for him to keep his job this year. read more

Border Patrol temporarily halts criminal prosecution referrals

first_img Updated: 7:53 PM June 25, 2018 00:00 00:00 spaceplay / pause qunload | stop ffullscreenshift + ←→slower / faster ↑↓volume mmute ←→seek  . seek to previous 12… 6 seek to 10%, 20% … 60% XColor SettingsAaAaAaAaTextBackgroundOpacity SettingsTextOpaqueSemi-TransparentBackgroundSemi-TransparentOpaqueTransparentFont SettingsSize||TypeSerif MonospaceSerifSans Serif MonospaceSans SerifCasualCursiveSmallCapsResetSave SettingsSAN DIEGO (KUSI) – Border Patrol agents have reportedly stopped criminal prosecution referrals for adults who cross the border illegally with children. According to the Associated Press, the head of US Customs and Border Protection ended the referrals on a temporary basis within hours of President Trump’s executive order last week.The zero tolerance policy reportedly remains in effect, but cases cannot be prosecuted because parents cannot be separated from their children. According to Attorney General Jeff Sessions, those who illegally cross the border will still be prosecuted. RELATED STORY: EXCLUSIVE: What happens to kids already separated from parents at borderImmigration Attorney Esther Valdes was in studio with the latest on the immigration crisis. Her full interview can be seen below. KUSI Newsroom, Sandra Maas, Allen Denton, Border Patrol temporarily halts criminal prosecution referrals KUSI Newsroom, Sandra Maas, Allen Denton center_img Categories: California News, Local San Diego News, National & International News, Politics Tags: Esther Valdes 00:00 00:00 spaceplay / pause qunload | stop ffullscreenshift + ←→slower / faster ↑↓volume mmute ←→seek  . seek to previous 12… 6 seek to 10%, 20% … 60% XColor SettingsAaAaAaAaTextBackgroundOpacity SettingsTextOpaqueSemi-TransparentBackgroundSemi-TransparentOpaqueTransparentFont SettingsSize||TypeSerif MonospaceSerifSans Serif MonospaceSans SerifCasualCursiveSmallCapsResetSave Settings Posted: June 25, 2018 FacebookTwitterlast_img read more

Surface plasmons enhance nanostructure possibilities

first_img Citation: Surface plasmons enhance nanostructure possibilities (2007, September 18) retrieved 18 August 2019 from https://phys.org/news/2007-09-surface-plasmons-nanostructure-possibilities.html A group of scientists from University College London and at the Queen’s University of Belfast have demonstrated a principle of achieving ultrahigh light dispersion that makes use of surface plasmon polaritons on nanostructures.“We have proposed a new principle to realize a microscale spectral device using the properties of surface plasmons on metallic nanostructures that can provide wavelength separation of one or more orders of magnitude better than in other state-of-the-art wavelength-splitting devices available to date,” Anatoly Zayats, one of the scientists at Queen’s University, tells PhysOrg.com via email. He and his colleagues have published their process, and the results of their experiment, in a Physical Review Letters piece: “Dispersing Light with Surface Plasmon Polaritonic Crystals.”Zayats points out that using conventional light diffraction can be difficult in optical communications and other systems because bulk three dimensional grating. “It is not possible to have several next to each other because of the size,” he says via phone.This problem is solved by the use of surface plasmon polaritons (SPPs). The SPPs used in the demonstration by the group from University College and Queen’s University are on a periodic nanostructure. In this realization, the dispersion process has two stages: the first changes incident light into SPP Bloch modes and the second involves refraction of the SPP Bloch waves. A metallic nanostructure both excites and diffracts the SPPs. Zayats says, “This significantly enhances the dispersion through the combination of conventional diffraction, amplified by the photonic superprism-like effect.”Uses for the plasmonic light dispersion would be in such areas as quantum information processing, lab-on-chip applications (especially in biology) for spectral analysis, chemistry and electronic engineering. Additionally, the high-resolution capabilities of this novel technique would allow for further study in fundamental physics. The Group is most excited about the implications for optical communications as signal processing devices.Zayats insists that the process is compatible with current technologies. The development and testing of the technique illustrates that it is possible with today’s scientific capabilities. However, he continues, using this SPP nanostructure technology “would require some work to interface conventional photonic devices and the proposed plasmonic device.” Zayats says that even though it is possible to achieve this, the difficulty is efficiently integrating it with current practical technology. “Interfacing is the problem that plasmonic in general is currently facing.”But Zayats remains optimistic that the system he and his colleagues have worked out will be viable. He maintains that there are several methods in the works by different scientific groups with regard to solving the problem of plasmonic integration: “As soon as this will be resolved to everyone’s satisfaction, we will most definitely see the dispersion plasmonic device widely employed in standard optical communications.”Copyright 2007 PhysOrg.com. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed in whole or part without the express written permission of PhysOrg.com. Explore further Light may increase magnetic memory speeds 1000 times, decrease electricity consumptioncenter_img As technology becomes smaller and smaller, scientists work to find solutions to a variety of problems in many different fields. It is known that light could be used for studying molecules and atoms, as well as for solving problems of quantum information processing and even for lab-on-chip applications in biology. The problem is how to reduce size of such optical devices to the level compatible with modern nanotechnology. This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.last_img read more